It is June 12, 1940. France is on the verge of defeat. Hitler appears certain to conquer Great Britain and win the war outright. Pleased with this development, Spanish dictator Francisco Franco rejects neutrality and announces a tacitly pro-German policy of nonbelligerence, modeled after that of Italy before its entrance into the war just two days earlier. On October 23, he signs an agreement committing Spain to join the Tripartite Pact—which Germany, Italy, and Japan concluded the previous month—at a time to be agreed upon by the four powers. Its terms assure Spain of badly needed military and economic assistance from Germany and Italy, and the restoration of Gibraltar, which Britain had seized from Spain in 1713. It also promises an expansion of Spanish territory in Morocco at the expense of Vichy France.
Spain does join the pact. Then, on January 10, 1941, it declares war on Great Britain, a step timed to coincide with the start of Operation Felix, the Nazi plan to capture the British fortress at Gibraltar. Sixty-five thousand German troops cross from occupied France into Spain, and by February Felix gets seriously under way. At that juncture, Hitler curtly informs Vichy France that Spain will receive a portion of French Morocco. Spanish troops occupy the expanded territory without firing a shot.
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The tiny Gibraltar peninsula—less than three square miles in size—comes under intense pressure from German infantry and armor, as well as relentless bombardment from heavy artillery and near-continual air raids. Within a month, the British garrison of 30,000 capitulates. The loss of Gibraltar closes the western Mediterranean to the Royal Navy, although British forces in the Middle East can still be supplied via the Suez Canal. Franco had urged Hitler to preempt this with an offensive to seize the canal, but Hitler, unwilling to adopt a Mediterranean-oriented strategy, declines to do so. His primary purpose in capturing Gibraltar was to strike a blow to British morale; furthermore, Franco's entry into the war has made it possible to base German U-boats in Spanish ports.
The seizure of Gibraltar, however, fails to shake Britain's resolve to continue the war. The United States, its foreign policy increasingly tilted toward Britain, ends trade relations with Spain, thereby forcing the diversion of substantial Axis economic resources to that country. Spain has planned to invade Portugal, but is incapable of doing so on its own. Hitler is uninterested in helping. Focused on Eastern Europe, he does not want to invest troops in a theater peripheral to German interests.
On June 22, 1941, Hitler invades the Soviet Union. The Falange, an organization of staunchly anti-Communist Spanish fascists, recruits a division of volunteers for service on the Eastern Front. Known as the Blue Division, its battlefield performance wins Hitler's admiration; its commander, Maj. Gen. Augustín Muñoz Grandes, receives the Iron Cross with Oak Leaves, an honor rarely bestowed on a non-German. As many as 45,000 Spaniards serve in the Blue Division, which suffers 13,654 casualties during its two years of service.
The above scenario closely fits the historical record. Spain did indeed declare nonbelligerent status, and did sign an understanding that it would eventually join the Tripartite Pact. As late as December 1942, Franco believed that at the right moment, Spain would join the war on the side of the Axis Powers. A Falangist Blue Division did serve on the Eastern Front until mid-1943. The number of casualties it sustained during that period is historically accurate, as is the name of its commander and the award he received.
The sequel to Spain's entry into the war is more difficult to imagine, but one possible scenario is the following:
In November 1942, the British Eighth Army defeats the Afrika Korps at El Alamein and gradually pushes the Germans toward Tunisia. That same month, the British and the Americans launch Operation Torch against the southwestern coast of Spain, partly in order to satisfy President Roosevelt's insistence that U.S. troops begin combat operations against Germany before year's end, and partly to retake Gibraltar as a prelude to operations aimed at containing the Afrika Korps in Tunisia. With comparatively few Germans still in Spain—most have redeployed to the Russian front—the western Allies have little difficulty gaining a foothold, and recover Gibraltar in January 1943.
In May 1943 the British and the Americans land in northwest Africa. They easily seize Spanish Morocco, as well as the Vichy French ports of Casablanca, Oran, and Algiers. Although Hitler reinforces the Afrika Korps, British and American forces overrun Tunisia by October, capturing some 230,000 Germans and Italians.
The Allies then weigh their options—to expand their foothold in Spain, or invade Sicily. Since Italy is the more dangerous foe, they decide upon the latter course, followed by an invasion of southern Italy. They anticipate, correctly, that the stress of this disaster will result in the collapse of the Mussolini regime.
Franco believes himself certain to meet the fate of Mussolini if the war continues. Accordingly, he enters into negotiations with the western Allies, but to his consternation the Allies demand Spain's unconditional surrender, as well as his own resignation. The Spanish officer corps, never enthusiastic about Franco's adventurism, forces him to accede. Franco is soon afterward assassinated, whether by pro-Communist Republicans or Falangist diehards no one can say. The Spanish pretender to the throne, Don Carlos, is restored as monarch.
Although the above scenario is speculative, three things are virtually certain: Spanish belligerency would have yielded disaster for a country already ravaged by civil war; the Franco regime would not have survived; and the monarchy would have been restored—as some Spanish generals actually urged during the war and as did in fact occur upon Franco's death in 1975.
Historically, both Germany and the Franco regime fully expected Spain to enter the war at some propitious time. But Spain required too much economic and military aid, while Germany demanded that Spain cede to it the Canary Islands and Spanish Equatorial Africa to support its submarine offensive. This Spain refused to do, though the disagreement might have been resolved simply by granting Germany basing rights. More serious—and ultimately a deal breaker—was Spain's desire for an expanded colonial presence in Morocco. Germany agreed in principle to allocate part of French Morocco to Spain at the war's conclusion. But Hitler's refusal to offer specifics gave the Franco regime considerable pause.
With that said, Hitler was initially willing to grant Spain the territorial concessions Franco desired. He reversed himself when a combined force of British and Free French attempted to seize Dakar, a strategic port in French West Africa held by Vichy France, between September 23 and 25, 1940. Though the expedition was a fiasco, it convinced Hitler of the importance of retaining good relations with Vichy France as a bulwark against potential future Allied incursions. Had this minor event not occurred, it is likely that the Franco regime would indeed have entered World War II—with little effect on the conflict's outcome, but with cataclysmic results for Spain.
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Spain would have been more of a headache to German as an active ally then as a benefit. As it was, Germany could resupply and base U-Boats in Spanish ports surreptisiously without active Spanish participation. Exports of foodstuffs and iron ore as well as the manpower of the Azul Division (for which Franco sent Hitler a bill!) were provided as well. Even had Germany been able to aquire the Azores as a lonf range U-boat or seaplane base, they lacked the naval presence to keep it for long. The British, wary of the threat to Gibraltar, walked teh diplomatic tightrope to keep Spain neutral and Franco was adept at playing both sides against the other. An Axis Spain would demand Luftwaffe units, both air and flak, available German ground units, and already scarce materials (such as oil) that Spain by proxy could already import from elsewhere as a neutral and by sleight of hand ship it to Germany via Vichy France or Italy. An Axis Spain would involve a showdown between El Caudillo and Il Duce over control of the Mediterranean. For Hitler, one tinpot dictator to prop up was enough, and one could only imagine how this additional economic, military and political burden would interere with Barbarossa. In conclusion, Spain benefited Germany more as a friendly neutral, not as a co-belligerent
i think war is not a solution for every problems.
[...] [...]
My opinion is that if Facist Spain had joined the Axis Powers in 1941, Franco would have expanded territory in Morocco with the slight help of Germany, Italy, and the permission of Vichy France. Spain would get this help from Germany because of the Spanish Blue Division (División Azul) in the German army, fighting the Allied Soviets in the Russian Eastern Front. Spain would have a quick recovery from the bloody Civil War (1936-1939) that the beat down country had endured from the help of their German, Italian, Japanese, and Vichy French allies. But after the great defeat of the Nothern Afrika Campaign, Italy retreated back to their country with Germany and Vichy France, and Spain would retreat back to their colony of Spanish Morocco. The Allies would focus on invading the Italian Peninsula and ending the Facist Mussolini Regiem. After the great loss and knowing Italy would eventually fall, Spain would get little or no help from the Germans because of the overwhelming surrounding of the Allied Forces in Europe, and later be invaded in France on D-Day. Spain would not survive the war with no help from their allies. With the clever way Franco played with politics, he would have no choice but to abandon the Axis Powers, back down from the war to neutrality, and for the Blue Division to return back to Spain from the Eastern Front. Spain would benefit from the war with the colony expansion of Morocco. When the Cold War started in 1947, Franco would lean towards the U.S. and gain respect from them because of their strict Anti-Communist policy. They would soon become trade partners and even later allies and try to stop Communism from entering their countries. Spain would be a strong wealthy country just like many years ago. In 1975, Franco would die in office and the leadership would be handed over to Juan Carlos who has Spanish Monarch ancestors. Juan Carlos would turn the country in to a Parliamentary Democracy. He would crown himself King and appoint a President or Prime Minister. This was as big transition but Spain had got used to it quickly and its now the Spain we all know today.
Whatever happened to members of the Blue Division captured in the U.S.S.R.?
Were they tried as war criminals?
They were treated like any other captured invader – badly, although not as badly as the Germans. The Soviets captured about 372 Blue Division soldiers during the war. A little less than 300 were returned to Spain in 1954 after Stalin´s death.
By the way, many people served in the Blue Division not because of Fascist commitment but trying to clean up their reputation or their families'. That is, a reputation of being "Red".
Dear Mr. Grimsley, et al.;
This is an excellent piece, with a few caveats. First, I am writing as a military historian and Wargamer. Scenarios in which the Spanish join the Axis, Either in 1939 or 1940, have been fought for years. In almost every case, the game goes as follows, and the results are always dire for the Allies.
In many simulations I have participated in, the Spanish require no assistance whatsoever to take Gibralter. Their strenght of their post civil war air force and army are more than capable of overwhelming the garrison there. And, if they are given, as a prize, French Morocco, it can be quickly integrated into their own territories.
Now as for what Spain gives the Axis: First, it cuts off the Med from the Atlantic Fleet. No more Gibralter as a base. The Italian and German fleets can cooperate, and German capital ships can now run into the Med and hide. Yes, the R.N. Med Fleet can stay in Alexandria, and be supplied via Suez, but that supply line is very long, and the Med Fleet has nothing to do but protect the Suez, which, with the other end of the Med closed off by German Dive Bombers, is a Canal to nowhere! The Germans/Italians/Spanish now control all of the Western Med, and Malta falls easily with no re-supply via Pedestal convoys. The Italians and Spanish can now supply the Afrika Korps with no interference from Britain. This puts great pressure on 8th Army, and in most of our games, the German/Italian/Spanish forces take Egypt by the end of 1941.
Yugoslavia and Greece are no problems for the Axis. With Egypt out of the way, the Germans move into Irag/Persia. ( and some of our scenarios have the Turks joining the Axis in late 1941 ) No more lend-lease route to the USSR. A German Army moves into southern USSR via Persia, and the resulting pressure causes a Soviet collapse by the end of 1942. ( It also helps if you can get the Japanese to go into Siberia in late 1941, to draw off the Siberian armies, and help Russia into her early grave. This also keeps Japan from doing something stupid like bringing the U.S. into the war )
In the West, the German/Italian surface fleet comes out of the Med, and enters the Atlantic, which has been the happy hunting ground of German U-boats since Autumn of 1940. The Atlantic convoys, Britain's lifeline, are severely impacted, and Britain experiences food and fuel shortages. By the end of 1943, Britain is forced to seek peace, or be invaded.
By the end of 1945, Germany, Italy, and Spain have subdivided Africa into three Zones ( Spanish West, Italian East, and German South ) and the Axis are now getting ready to deal with the United States, who has just polished off Japan.
Essentially, if the Spanish had enterered the war on the side of the Axis, Germany, barring the unforseen, would have won the war. In OTL, Hitler met with Franco in the Summer of 1940, and Franco chose to stay neutral. My question has always been, "What the Hell did Hitler say to Franco that so Pissed him off that he wouldn't join such a Sure Thing? " It must have been really insulting !
Respectfully;
Paul R. Ward
Military plans can stand everything but reality. I think after the first two years of the war, the agressors (Germany, Italy and Japan) had squandered the advantage of surprise and were battling overwhelmig odds. They took too much too quickly. Of course, Paul is right when he sees a gross strategic error in not closing the Mediterranean by pushing Spain to war and taking Gibraltar, but in the end, I think Germany, mostly alone, (they never had a common strategy with Japan) wouldn't have been able to tackle Britain, USA and USSR at the same time. Maybe the war would have lasted longer, but in the end…
If Spain has entered the war at Axis side, what probably would happen is that we will be defeated by the allies and we will be part of the Marshall program with the consequently entrance of money, so nowadays, I mean before that last crisis, our economical and industrial level would be more powerfull than it was.
Anyway, from my point of view, my country wasn't prepared for a democracy during the 40's and 50's because of the extreme left and right wing that existed here. Both of them will want the power so….civil war again. The country was completly splited.
That dictatorship era, with the "Transición" before is what made my country an established and strong democracy.
From my point of view, the participation of Franco´s regime in 2 WW would allow British troops to land in the Iberian peninsula. That would distract a lot of resources (men, weapons, oil) that Hitler intended to deploy to the Eastern Front.
As in current EU politics, Germans were not interested in the Mediterranean front but in East Europe, as a way to control rural and mineral rich Ucraine, and reach the Caucusus and from there to the oil rich areas in Iraq.